Synthetic Lubricants Market Size & Share 2016 - 2023
Market Size by Product (Group IV [PAO], Group V [Esters], PAG), by Application (Engine Oils, Transmission Fluids, HTF, Metalworking Fluids), Industry Analysis Report, Regional Outlook, Application Potential, Price Trends, Competitive Market Share & Forecast.
Report ID: GMI368
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Published Date: March 2016
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Report Format: PDF
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Authors:
Kiran Pulidindi, Kunal Ahuja
Synthetic Lubricants Market Size
Synthetic Lubricants Market size is expected to reach over $5 billion by 2023 with an estimated growth rate of over 4% from 2016 to 2023. Increasing demand from industrial and automobile sectors in Asia Pacific subject to installation of new machines coupled with increased branded cars sales will drive the global market during forecast period.
Growing adoption of new technologies, including fire resistant esters may favor the business growth in future. Major original equipment manufacturers have set NSF food lubrication standards for food application which will propel synthetic lubricants market share in coming years.
Synthetic oils are derived from ethylene oxides, which are procured through natural gas, tight oil, CBM, shale gas, and crude oil. Shell, Chevron, Total, Exxon Mobil and BP are integrated manufacturers, which ensures ethylene oxides supply to refining units for production PAG, ester-based and PAO synthetic lubricants.
Automotive applications may dominate the industry owing to increase in automobile sales mostly driven by the U.S., China, India, and Brazil, which will foster the synthetic lubricants market growth in future. China automobile sales increased from 9.3 million to 23 million units in 2014.
Gulf Cooperation Council natural gas production reached 369.2 BCM in 2012 from 207.5 BCM in 2005. Growth in personal care, food & beverage, automotive, and construction sectors in emerging nations including UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, has shifted political emphasis towards the development of natural gas which will positively influence the synthetic lubricants market value.
Synthetic Lubricants Market Analysis
Group IV was valued over 400 kilo tons in 2015 and is expected to witness growth rate over 4% from 2016 to 2023. Wide adoption of PAO in automotive engine with OEM recommendation in brands including Volkswagen and BMW will complement the synthetic lubricants market outlook.
Ester segment is set to exceed USD 1.7 billion by 2023. Increase in ester demand in reciprocating compressors will stimulate the business growth during forecast period.
Engine oil contributed to 40% of global synthetic lubricants market share in 2015 and is expected to witness growth rate at over 4% by 2023. It offers excellent firm protection, high operating temperature range and increased drain interval.
Synthetic lubricants market share demand from heat transfer fluids is expected to exceed USD 1.5 billion by 2023. These are primarily used for water removals in O&G and chemical plants. Automatic transmission fluids are used to execute various functions including torque conversion, valve operation, gear oiling and brake band friction and as hydraulic fluid in power steering.
Asia Pacific led by India and China is expected to reach over 200 kilo tons by 2023 with 4.6% CAGR anticipation from 2016 to 2023. Increasing automobile sales is predicted to stimulate the synthetic lubricants market statistics in future. It has wide applications in automobile industry subject to its superior properties with high performance when compared with mineral products.
Europe is set to surpass $1,000 million by 2023 subject to existence of major automotive engineering workshops including Mercedes, BMW, Rolls Royce, VW, Audi, and Airbus. Latin America and Middle East offers a high growth potential for industry players.
Synthetic Lubricants Market Share
Key industry players include:
ExxonMobil and BP accounted for 50% of synthetic lubricants industry revenue in 2015.
High fiber cost when compared with mineral oil and increasing demand for mineral oil from small scale manufactures mainly in Asia Pacific will hamper the synthetic lubricants market growth.
Industry Background
Synthetic lubricants are procured from pure chemicals rather than refined from crude oil. They can be used in both high and low temperatures. They improve oxidation resistance, thermal stability, low-temperature properties and reduce residue formation, flammability, and lower evaporation losses. They also help to reduce fiction and thus improve fuel efficiency and equipment life. Increasing demand for automobiles coupled with rising middle-class economy is expected to drive the synthetic lubricants business growth during forecast period.
Synthetic Lubricants market research report includes in-depth coverage of the industry with estimates & forecast in terms of volume and revenue in Kilo Tons and USD Million from 2012 to 2023, for the following segments:
By Product
By Application
The above information is provided on a regional and country basis for the following:
By Region
Research methodology, data sources & validation process
This report draws on a structured research process built around direct industry conversations, proprietary modelling, and rigorous cross-validation and not just desk research.
Our 6-step research process
1. Research design & analyst oversight
At GMI, our research methodology is built on a foundation of human expertise, rigorous validation, and complete transparency. Every insight, trend analysis, and forecast in our reports is developed by experienced analysts who understand the nuances of your market.
Our approach integrates extensive primary research through direct engagement with industry participants and experts, complemented by comprehensive secondary research from verified global sources. We apply quantified impact analysis to deliver dependable forecasts, while maintaining complete traceability from original data sources to final insights.
2. Primary research
Primary research forms the backbone of our methodology, contributing nearly 80% to overall insights. It involves direct engagement with industry participants to ensure accuracy and depth in analysis. Our structured interview program covers regional and global markets, with inputs from C-suite executives, directors, and subject matter experts. These interactions provide strategic, operational, and technical perspectives, enabling well-rounded insights and reliable market forecasts.
3. Data mining & market analysis
Data mining is a key part of our research process, contributing nearly 20% to the overall methodology. It involves analysing market structure, identifying industry trends, and assessing macroeconomic factors through revenue share analysis of major players. Relevant data is collected from both paid and unpaid sources to build a reliable database. This information is then integrated to support primary research and market sizing, with validation from key stakeholders such as distributors, manufacturers, and associations.
4. Market sizing
Our market sizing is built on a bottom-up approach, starting with company revenue data gathered directly through primary interviews, alongside production volume figures from manufacturers and installation or deployment statistics. These inputs are then pieced together across regional markets to arrive at a global estimate that stays grounded in actual industry activity.
5. Forecast model & key assumptions
Every forecast includes explicit documentation of:
✓ Key growth drivers and their assumed impact
✓ Restraining factors and mitigation scenarios
✓ Regulatory assumptions and policy change risk
✓ Technology adoption curve parameter
✓ Macroeconomic assumptions (GDP growth, inflation, currency)
✓ Competitive dynamics and market entry/exit expectations
6. Validation & quality assurance
The final stages involve human validation, where domain experts manually review filtered data to identify nuances and contextual errors that automated systems might miss. This expert review adds a critical layer of quality assurance, ensuring data aligns with research objectives and domain-specific standards.
Our triple-layer validation process ensures maximum data reliability:
✓ Statistical Validation
✓ Expert Validation
✓ Market Reality Check
Trust & credibility
Verified data sources
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Industry databases
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Regulatory filings
Government procurement records and policy documents
Academic research
University studies and specialist institution reports
Company reports
Annual reports, investor presentations, and filings
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C-suite, procurement leads, and technical specialists
GMI archive
13,000+ published studies across 30+ industry verticals
Trade data
Import/export volumes, HS codes, and customs records
Parameters studied & evaluated
Every data point in this report is validated through primary interviews, true bottom-up modelling, and rigorous cross-checks. Read about our research process →