Authors:
Suraj Gujar, Navya Malhotra
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Shoulder Fired Weapons Market Size & Share 2026-2035
Report ID: GMI14287
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Published Date: October 2026
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Shoulder Fired Weapons Market Size
The shoulder fired weapons market was valued at USD 8.15 billion in 2025, is projected to reach USD 8.87 billion in 2026, is expected to advance at a 4.2% CAGR (2026–2035), and is forecast to reach USD 12.87 billion in 2035.
Shoulder Fired Weapons Market Key Takeaways
Market Leader: MBDA led with over 11.8% market share in 2025.
Leading Players: Top 5 players in this market include MBDA, Saab AB, RTX, Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, Lockheed Martin, which collectively held a market share of 46.9% in 2025.
The market covers man-portable, tube-launched systems operated by an individual soldier or two-person crew, including anti-tank guided missiles, man-portable air-defense systems, unguided rocket launchers, and recoilless rifles. Revenue is allocated to the procuring military or security authority's location rather than the manufacturing country.
Demand has shifted from a narrow anti-armor requirement toward a broader infantry-lethality proposition. Armed forces are using shoulder-fired capability to distribute anti-vehicle, counter-air, anti-structure, and short-range counter-drone effects closer to the tactical edge. Replenishment needs following conflict-driven inventory drawdowns support near-term orders, while force modernization, training redesign, and interoperability requirements should sustain procurement through the forecast period.
GMI Analyst View
Our discussions with defense procurement authorities and supply-chain participants indicate the shoulder fired weapons market expanded at a 6.7% compound annual rate over the 2022–2025 historic period, a pace driven by emergency procurement cycles following major conflict escalations across Europe and the Middle East that compressed multi-year acquisition timelines into a shorter operational window than typical peacetime planning cycles permit.
Shoulder Fired Weapons Market Trends, Growth Drivers & GMI Forecast Outlook
The market is being shaped by the conversion of elevated defense appropriations into field-ready infantry capability. Guided systems are gaining priority where survivability and first-round lethality are decisive, but licensing, affordability, and deployment constraints will continue to determine how quickly procurement intent becomes delivered equipment.
Key Drivers
Evidence anchors use cited external data; demand implications and forecast conditions represent GMI analysis.
Defense budgets now influence this market through more than headline spending growth. Governments are directing funds toward ammunition replenishment, distributed anti-armor capacity, and low-altitude air-defense resilience, where shoulder-fired systems can be acquired and fielded more quickly than larger platform programs. Simultaneous procurement across Europe, Asia Pacific, and the Middle East also places unusual pressure on qualified component, seeker, propulsion, and launcher supply chains. [1]Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. "Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2024." sipri.org
The Javelin production ramp illustrates the strategic effect of a mature allied program. A large anchor order gives partner countries greater confidence in availability, commonality, sustainment planning, and training alignment. It also encourages purchasers to weigh platform compatibility against the risk of entering a less established weapon ecosystem, reinforcing demand for proven guided architectures. [2]RTX Corporation. "US Army Awards the Javelin Joint Venture $1.3B Contract." rtx.com
Fire-and-forget performance changes the operational economics of infantry employment. Systems that reduce the operator's exposure after launch can be assigned more widely across formations, provided doctrine, training, and target-identification procedures evolve in parallel. This expands the potential user base without eliminating the need for disciplined control of advanced munitions.
Key Restraints
Evidence anchors use cited external data; demand implications and forecast conditions represent GMI analysis.
Export controls remain a commercial constraint even when operational demand is urgent. Guided systems commonly require review of end use, end user, technology transfer, sustainment arrangements, and regional security implications. These requirements can extend the period between customer interest and executable delivery, particularly for buyers without an established acquisition relationship with the exporting government. [3]U.S. Department of State. "Fiscal Year 2024 U.S. Arms Transfers and Defense Trade." state.gov
Affordability is not limited to launcher and missile acquisition. Certification, training devices, spares, secure storage, maintenance support, and lifecycle assurance can make full-capability guided systems difficult to accommodate within annual budgets. The Moroccan Stinger notification demonstrates the scale of commitment associated with a certified air-defense acquisition. [4]Defense Security Cooperation Agency. "Kingdom of Morocco – FIM-92K Stinger Block I Missiles." dsca.mil
The physical environment also influences system selection. Backblast and safety-arc restrictions can limit employment from enclosed or densely built positions, creating a tactical case for low-backblast, disposable, or alternative-launch solutions. For manufacturers, this favors portfolios that address distinct engagement environments rather than relying on a single premium guided platform.
GMI Analyst View
We see the market separating into urgent replenishment programs and deliberate modernization programs. The first rewards available capacity, established qualification, and rapid contracting; the second rewards modularity, training efficiency, and lifecycle support. Suppliers that can serve both demand patterns without compromising export compliance should be better positioned as emergency orders transition into structured replacement cycles.
Shoulder Fired Weapons Market Segment Analysis
By Weapon Type
Anti-Tank Guided Missiles (ATGM)
Anti-Tank Guided Missiles generated USD 3.18 billion in 2025 and are projected to reach USD 5.38 billion in 2035. The shoulder fired weapons market is increasingly anchored by ATGM demand because infantry formations require credible precision anti-armor capability against both conventional and rapidly maneuvering threats. Fire-and-forget operation, modern seekers, and compatibility with alliance training architectures make this category central to modernization programs.
Man-Portable Air-Defense Systems (MANPADS)
Man-Portable Air-Defense Systems generated USD 1.79 billion in 2025 and are forecast to grow at a 4.5% CAGR (2026–2035). Low-flying aircraft, helicopters, and unmanned aerial systems have expanded the need for dispersed short-range air-defense capability. MANPADS procurement therefore increasingly reflects a requirement to protect maneuver units, critical infrastructure, and temporary operating locations rather than a supplementary air-defense mission alone.
Unguided Rocket Launchers
Unguided Rocket Launchers held a 16.0% revenue share in 2025 and are projected to account for a 14.9% share in 2035. Their relative position is affected by the migration toward guided systems, but their tactical relevance remains durable where immediate availability, simple training, low maintenance, and distributed infantry issue are valued. Disposable and single-shot configurations remain particularly relevant for formations that prioritize volume and mobility over precision engagement.
Recoilless Rifles
Recoilless Rifles generated USD 978 million in 2025 and are expected to reach USD 1.30 billion in 2035. Their appeal rests on multi-role employment: the same launcher family can support anti-armor, anti-structure, illumination, and area-effect missions through ammunition selection. This flexibility supports demand from forces seeking to reduce logistics burden while retaining a broad set of tactical responses.
Others
Other weapon types held an 11.0% revenue share in 2025 and are forecast to grow at a 3.9% CAGR (2026–2035). This category includes emerging man-portable rocket concepts and adaptations intended to address counter-drone or multi-role missions. Its trajectory depends on whether new designs can demonstrate operational value without creating excessive training, certification, or support complexity.
By Technology
Guided
Guided systems accounted for a 66.0% revenue share in 2025 and are projected to generate USD 9.16 billion by 2035. Their increasing importance reflects procurement preference for improved target engagement, operator survivability, and mission confidence. Network-enabled target data, advanced seekers, and multi-mode guidance are likely to preserve the technology's premium position where customers can support the associated acquisition and sustainment requirements.
Unguided
Unguided systems generated USD 2.77 billion in 2025 and are forecast to grow at a 2.3% CAGR (2026–2035). They retain a meaningful role in large infantry inventories and cost-sensitive procurement environments because they can be simpler to distribute, maintain, and train on. Their competitive position depends less on precision and more on practical availability, affordability, and suitability for missions where high volumes of tactical fires remain necessary.
By End-User
Army / Land Forces
Army / Land Forces generated USD 4.65 billion in 2025 and are projected to hold a 52.9% revenue share in 2035. Land forces remain the dominant customer because they procure the widest spectrum of shoulder-fired systems across anti-armor, anti-structure, and tactical air-defense roles. Modernization programs increasingly pair weapon acquisition with revised force design, allowing capabilities once retained at higher echelons to be distributed to smaller units.
Special Operations Forces (SOF)
Special Operations Forces are projected to generate USD 2.88 billion by 2035 and grow at a 6.1% CAGR (2026–2035). SOF requirements favor compact, precise, and mission-adaptable systems that can operate with a limited logistics footprint. This creates a demanding innovation market in which portability, signature management, targeting integration, and operator autonomy can matter as much as raw destructive effect.
Internal Security Forces
Internal Security Forces held an 11.0% revenue share in 2025 and are projected to generate USD 1.45 billion by 2035. Border security, paramilitary, and gendarmerie organizations tend to prioritize systems that can be integrated into shorter training cycles and sustained with constrained technical infrastructure. Their demand is often shaped by internal-threat conditions and the legal, operational, and escalation controls governing domestic deployment.
Naval Forces
Naval Forces held an 8.0% revenue share in 2025 and are projected to generate USD 1.10 billion by 2035. Shipborne teams are considering portable capability more actively as unmanned threats and low-altitude attack profiles challenge traditional force-protection assumptions. The opportunity is concentrated in systems that fit naval storage, safety, training, and rapid-response requirements without imposing an unsustainable specialist burden on crews.
Air Force Ground Defense
Air Force Ground Defense held a 5.0% revenue share in 2025 and is forecast to grow at a 3.9% CAGR (2026–2035). Expeditionary air bases and dispersed infrastructure require deployable defenses that can complement fixed-site systems. Demand is likely to favor portable air-defense assets that can be repositioned quickly as threat vectors, sortie patterns, and base operating concepts change.
GMI Analyst View
We believe the segment mix is being defined by a trade-off between precision and deployability rather than a simple replacement of unguided systems by guided alternatives. Advanced guided products will shape revenue mix, while unguided launchers and multi-role recoilless systems will remain essential where force distribution, tactical simplicity, and logistics discipline determine the purchasing decision.
Shoulder Fired Weapons Market Regional Analysis
North America Shoulder Fired Weapons Market Analysis
North America held a 32.0% revenue share in 2025 and is projected to generate USD 3.75 billion by 2035. The shoulder fired weapons market in the region is led by the United States, whose procurement programs influence production capacity, qualification practices, and interoperability decisions across allied customers. Canada contributes through NATO-aligned modernization and a continuing need for interoperable infantry capability.
U.S.
The U.S. generated USD 2.40 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 3.45 billion by 2035. Domestic replenishment, force modernization, and the role of U.S. programs in supporting allied acquisition create unusually strong demand visibility. Javelin, Stinger, and Carl-Gustaf-related requirements illustrate how national procurement can also establish a reference point for multinational sustainment and training ecosystems.
Canada
Canada generated USD 208 million in 2025 and is forecast to grow at a 3.2% CAGR (2026–2035). Its procurement profile is shaped by interoperability commitments and a preference for systems compatible with allied doctrine and logistics. The pace of growth will depend on how broader defense-spending priorities translate into funded infantry modernization programs.
Europe Shoulder Fired Weapons Market Analysis
Europe generated USD 2.28 billion in 2025 and is projected to hold a 30.5% revenue share in 2035. Regional demand reflects the persistence of a continental rearmament cycle, where replenishment, readiness, and force expansion are occurring alongside long-term industrial policy. Procurement is particularly active where governments view portable anti-armor and air-defense capability as essential to territorial defense.
UK
The UK generated USD 502 million in 2025 and is forecast to grow at a 6.7% CAGR (2026–2035). Demand is supported by anti-armor and air-defense requirements tied to force restructuring and alliance readiness. The country's position as a mature user of several established weapon families can support faster adoption where modernization focuses on capacity, sustainment, and upgraded variants.
France
France held a 20.0% revenue share within Europe in 2025 and is projected to generate USD 825 million by 2035. Domestic industrial participation remains central to French procurement, with national capability priorities supporting systems produced by European prime contractors. This approach can provide continuity across development, production, and sustainment while preserving flexibility for evolving land-force requirements.
Germany
Germany generated USD 365 million in 2025 and is projected to hold a 17.0% revenue share within Europe in 2035. The country's procurement environment is being reshaped by higher readiness expectations and a renewed emphasis on conventional deterrence. Demand is likely to favor systems that integrate into broader land-force modernization while satisfying NATO compatibility and domestic acquisition requirements.
Poland
Poland is projected to generate USD 590 million by 2035 and grow at a 7.9% CAGR (2026–2035). Its eastern-flank position and ambitious ground-force expansion make portable anti-armor and air-defense systems strategically significant. National industrial participation, allied interoperability, and a willingness to accelerate acquisition are likely to sustain its role as a major European demand center.
Europe
Europe Others held a 30.0% revenue share within the region in 2025 and are projected to account for 22.0% in 2035. The group includes multiple countries with distinct procurement cycles, but shared concerns over stockpile resilience, interoperability, and territorial defense support continued demand. The relative decline reflects the faster expansion of the named national markets rather than a loss of strategic relevance among the remaining countries.
Asia Pacific Shoulder Fired Weapons Market Analysis
Asia Pacific generated USD 1.96 billion in 2025 and is forecast to grow at a 5.6% CAGR (2026–2035). The shoulder fired weapons market in the region is supported by border tensions, territorial defense priorities, and efforts to reduce reliance on a single foreign supplier. Procurement is increasingly linked to local assembly, co-development, and the need to protect dispersed land and maritime positions.
India
India is projected to generate USD 970 million by 2035 and grow at an 8.4% CAGR (2026–2035). Its demand is supported by large-scale land-force modernization and a policy preference for indigenous industrial capability. Domestic production arrangements and diversified sourcing can strengthen availability while supporting a more resilient procurement base for anti-tank and multi-role systems.
China
China held a 20.0% revenue share within Asia Pacific in 2025 and is projected to generate USD 624 million by 2035. A domestically integrated defense-industrial base underpins demand, with procurement shaped by infantry modernization and the need for a broad portfolio of anti-armor and air-defense options. Domestic supply reduces exposure to export constraints but also intensifies competition in markets open to Chinese-origin systems.
South Korea
South Korea generated USD 352 million in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 658 million by 2035. Its procurement is influenced by readiness requirements on the Korean Peninsula and by the country's growing role as a defense manufacturer. The combination of domestic development, alliance interoperability, and export ambition can support sustained investment in next-generation guided systems.
Japan
Japan held a 12.0% revenue share within Asia Pacific in 2025 and is forecast to grow at a 3.5% CAGR (2026–2035). The country's defense modernization is increasingly oriented toward remote-island resilience, rapid mobility, and layered deterrence. Shoulder-fired capability can provide a portable complement to larger formations where access, terrain, and time-to-deploy are decisive.
Asia Pacific
Asia Pacific held a 28.0% revenue share within the region in 2025 and are projected to account for 25.0% in 2035. This group encompasses countries with varied threat perceptions and procurement resources, including states that prioritize alliance compatibility and others that seek diversified suppliers. Demand will remain sensitive to national budgets, technology-transfer conditions, and regional security developments.
Latin America Shoulder Fired Weapons Market Analysis
Latin America generated USD 407 million in 2025 and is forecast to decline at a -2.0% CAGR (2026–2035). The region's shoulder fired weapons market is constrained by fiscal discipline, limited conventional-threat urgency, and competition from other defense and internal-security priorities. High-end guided systems face a particularly difficult conversion environment where lifecycle costs exceed routine procurement capacity.
Brazil
Brazil generated USD 224 million in 2025 and is forecast to decline at a -2.0% CAGR (2026–2035). The country retains a need to sustain existing infantry capability, but current conditions favor selective replacement and maintenance over broad guided-system expansion. Future demand will depend on whether strategic modernization commitments receive long-term funding rather than remaining capability aspirations.
Middle East & Africa (MEA) Shoulder Fired Weapons Market Analysis
Middle East & Africa (MEA) held an 11.0% revenue share in 2025 and is projected to generate USD 1.35 billion by 2035. Demand is uneven across the region: Gulf states can support advanced modernization programs, while many African markets face financing, licensing, and sustainment constraints. Threats from drones, missiles, and armored formations nevertheless sustain interest in portable anti-air and anti-armor systems.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia is projected to generate USD 406 million by 2035 and grow at a 4.5% CAGR (2026–2035). Modernization under Vision 2030 and the need to address regional missile and drone threats support demand for upgraded guided systems. Procurement is likely to remain linked to interoperability, external support arrangements, and long-term sustainment capacity.
UAE
The UAE held an 18.0% revenue share within MEA in 2025 and is projected to generate USD 243 million by 2035. Its requirements reflect a combination of partner-force interoperability, counter-drone readiness, and domestic industrial ambitions. International partnerships that include local capability development may therefore have an advantage over transactions focused only on equipment delivery.
Israel
Israel generated USD 197 million in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 297 million by 2035. The country is both a significant end user and an important producer of guided systems, creating a close relationship between operational requirements and technology development. Its demand profile is supported by the need for adaptable systems suited to multiple concurrent operational environments.
MEA
MEA Others held a 32.0% revenue share within the region in 2025 and are projected to account for 30.0% in 2035. Demand across these countries varies sharply according to security conditions, fiscal resources, and access to export approvals. The relative shift toward named Gulf and Israeli markets reflects their stronger capacity to fund sophisticated systems and associated support infrastructure.
GMI Analyst View
We assess regional demand as increasingly dependent on procurement maturity rather than threat intensity alone. Countries with established acquisition channels, trained operators, and sustainment infrastructure can translate urgency into deliveries more effectively. Europe and Asia Pacific combine strong security drivers with improving industrial capacity, while affordability and approval timelines will continue to constrain broader adoption elsewhere.
Shoulder Fired Weapons Market Share & Competitive Landscape
The shoulder fired weapons market share structure is moderately concentrated, with the top five companies collectively holding a 46.9% revenue share in 2025. Competition is shaped by platform qualification, alliance relationships, production capacity, export access, ammunition compatibility, and the ability to sustain systems over long procurement cycles. National champions and specialist manufacturers remain important where domestic sourcing, industrial participation, or sovereign-control objectives influence awards.
MBDA held an 11.8% market share in 2025. Its competitive position rests on a broad portfolio spanning anti-tank guided missiles, air-defense systems, and collaborative European programs. The company benefits where European governments seek industrial autonomy alongside NATO interoperability, while its ability to support successive product upgrades strengthens customer retention across long operating lives.
Saab AB held an 11.6% market share in 2025. Carl-Gustaf and AT4 product families give Saab a strong position in multi-role and disposable infantry weapons, respectively. Its advantage is reinforced by mature user communities, standardized training, and framework-based procurement mechanisms that can shorten acquisition cycles for customers seeking established systems.
RTX held a 10.2% market share in 2025. Its Javelin and Stinger exposure ties the company closely to major U.S. and allied requirements, where production scale and Foreign Military Sales channels can create durable demand visibility. Competitive strength depends on maintaining delivery performance as customers seek replenishment, modernization, and interoperability within the same procurement environment.
Rafael Advanced Defense Systems is a significant participant in guided anti-tank systems through the Spike family. Its positioning benefits from an extensive user base, multiple launch configurations, and regular technology upgrades that can create follow-on demand. Industrial partnerships can further extend market access where customers require domestic participation or localized support.
Lockheed Martin participates principally through its stake in the Javelin Joint Venture and related fire-control capability. Its role as a co-prime in a widely adopted guided anti-tank program links its market performance to U.S. Army procurement and international customer demand. Broader relationships across precision fires and missile defense can reinforce its access to acquisition authorities evaluating connected battlefield capabilities.
Recent Industry Developments
September 2025 - Javelin Joint Venture production award. The U.S. Army awarded the Javelin Joint Venture a FY2025 production contract for missiles, associated equipment, and services. The award includes Foreign Military Sales provisions for Brazil, Tunisia, Estonia, Bulgaria, and Australia, extending the program's customer base and supporting allied interoperability. [5]Lockheed Martin. "US Army Awards the Javelin Joint Venture $900.5M Contract." lockheedmartin.com
June 2025 - MBDA FULGUR development contract. MBDA received a contract to develop the FULGUR very-short-range air-defense system for the Italian Army. The planned man-portable system is designed to counter drones, helicopters, and fixed-wing aircraft, reflecting the growing importance of portable counter-air capability within European force modernization. [7]MBDA. "MBDA awarded contract to develop FULGUR very short-range missile for the Italian Army." mbda-systems.com
December 2025 - Saab Lithuanian ground-combat orders. Saab received orders from Lithuania for AT4 weapons and Carl-Gustaf M4 ammunition under a framework that can also support orders from Latvia and Estonia. Planned deliveries reinforce the Baltic states' emphasis on interoperable and readily fielded infantry capability. [6]Saab AB. "Saab receives ground combat orders from Lithuania." saab.com
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