Anti-Tank Guided Missile Market Size & Share 2026-2035

Anti-Tank Guided Missile (ATGM) Market Size

The anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) market was valued at USD 8,900 million in 2025 and is projected to increase from USD 9,600 million in 2026 to USD 14,680 million by 2035, at a CAGR of approximately 4.8% from 2026 to 2035.

The market includes guided missiles, launch systems, platform integration, training, simulation, sustainment, and upgrade support procured for land, air, and naval anti-armor missions. Demand accelerated at an estimated 8.8% CAGR during 2022-2025 as military inventories were drawn down, armored-force survivability became a central battlefield concern, and procurement agencies prioritized precision weapons that could be used by dispersed formations.

ATGMs retain a distinct role despite wider use of loitering munitions and first-person-view drones. A guided missile provides predictable terminal performance, specialized tandem-warhead effects, and a qualified engagement option against armored or hardened targets. The requirement is becoming more demanding: operators increasingly seek launch-once-and-relocate capability, resistance to obscurants and electronic countermeasures, and longer-range engagement using third-party targeting data. Modern systems therefore compete on seeker resilience, datalink architecture, launcher compatibility, and the supplier's ability to support production over a multi-year contract horizon.

Global defense expenditure reached USD 2.9 trillion in 2025, while military spending in Europe rose 14% and spending in Asia and Oceania increased 8.1%, strengthening the budget environment for anti-armor recapitalization ^{[1]Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Global military spending rise continues as European and Asian expenditures surge. sipri.org}. The immediate demand effect is strongest in nations replenishing stocks or modernizing mechanized formations; the longer-term effect is a broader shift from legacy command-guided systems toward fire-and-forget, multi-mode, and non-line-of-sight weapons.

The central market tension is between affordability and survivability. Lower-cost legacy systems remain viable where installed launchers, training systems, and threat conditions support their continued use. However, active protection systems, long-range sensors, and dispersed armored formations are shifting premium procurement toward systems that can approach from flexible trajectories, accept updated targeting information, or employ more than one guidance mode. That change supports disproportionate value growth in extended-range systems even when missile volumes remain more concentrated in land-force replenishment programs.

Key Drivers

Rising geopolitical risk is sustaining replenishment demand. Ukraine received 9.7% of global major-arms imports during 2021-2025, making it the largest recipient worldwide and reinforcing the priority placed on precision anti-armor inventories among European and allied forces. Stock replacement has been accompanied by a reassessment of how infantry, armored formations, helicopters, and unmanned sensors should be linked in anti-armor operations.

Defense-budget expansion provides the financial basis for these programs. NATO members committed to a new 5% defense-and-security spending benchmark at the 2025 Hague Summit, while European Union defense expenditure is projected to reach EUR 454 billion in 2026 ^{[2]NATO, Defence expenditures and NATO's 5% commitment. nato.int}, ^{[3]European Council, Defence data and figures. consilium.europa.eu}. Missile procurement benefits when modernization budgets are protected over multiple years because suppliers can invest in tooling, test capacity, seeker production, and qualified subcontractors.

Technology is creating a separate replacement cycle. Lockheed Martin's JAGM combines semi-active laser, imaging infrared, and millimeter-wave radar guidance, allowing air crews to retain engagement options under conditions that complicate use of a single sensor mode. Fiber-optic and radio-frequency datalinks similarly allow some NLOS systems to receive target updates or be redirected after launch, making them relevant to sensor-to-shooter networks rather than solely direct-fire engagements.

Domestic industrial policy is also expanding demand beyond conventional import procurement. India's March 2025 contract for the Nag Missile System-Tracked version placed a domestically developed fire-and-forget system on BMP-2-based platforms, while Brazil's SIATT secured serial production for the MAX 1.2 AC missile in January 2025,. These programs create demand for domestic subsystems, integration, testing, and follow-on support, although they can also delay near-term purchases while local qualification proceeds.

Key Restraints

Advanced missiles impose a significant affordability constraint because the seeker, warhead, propulsion, secure electronics, launcher integration, and qualification program are all high-value elements. For budget-constrained forces, acquiring a smaller inventory of IIR or multi-mode missiles can compete directly with investments in basic ammunition, vehicles, training, and readiness. This keeps SACLOS replenishment commercially relevant even where customers recognize the operational advantages of fire-and-forget systems.

Countermeasures create a second restraint. Active protection systems can detect, track, and intercept incoming threats, increasing the technical burden on missile manufacturers to develop top-attack profiles, tandem effects, coordinated salvos, and adaptable approach paths. These responses can improve premium-system value, but they also extend development schedules and raise unit costs. The resulting procurement pattern is selective: advanced weapons are reserved for priority armored threats, while lower-cost weapons and drones may be considered for less demanding targets.

This segmentation favors companies with both a mature installed base and a credible technology-refresh path. A supplier that can offer a lower-cost system for broad distribution and a higher-end NLOS or multi-mode option for specialized units can remain relevant as force structures change. Suppliers dependent on a single guidance generation face greater risk when customers move procurement criteria from basic penetration performance to survivability, target-update capability, and counter-countermeasure resilience.

Anti-Tank Guided Missile (ATGM) Market Segment Analysis

By Launch Platform

Land-Based

Land-based systems accounted for USD 5,767 million in 2025 and are projected to reach USD 8,876 million by 2035, expanding at approximately 4.1%. The segment remains the market's revenue base because most anti-armor formations operate from dismounted infantry positions, combat vehicles, or dedicated tank-destroyer platforms. Growth is moderated by maturity rather than declining relevance: land forces already possess the largest installed missile and launcher inventories, so spending is weighted toward replenishment, replacement, vehicle integration, and lifecycle modernization.

Air-Launched ATGMs

Air-launched ATGMs are projected to grow from USD 2,516 million in 2025 to USD 4,776 million by 2035, at approximately 6.3%. Helicopter and fixed-wing operators are replacing or supplementing legacy weapons with systems that offer longer standoff range and improved seeker flexibility. The U.S. Army awarded Lockheed Martin a USD 720 million JAGM and HELLFIRE production contract in August 2025, supporting U.S. Army, U.S. Navy, and international requirements ^{[4]Lockheed Martin, Lockheed Martin awarded $720 million contract for JAGM, HELLFIRE production. news.lockheedmartin.com}. Air-launched demand is therefore tied to platform availability, flight-test certification, and the ability to integrate missiles into targeting and mission-management systems.

Naval ATGM Systems

Naval ATGM systems are expected to rise from USD 618 million in 2025 to USD 1,043 million by 2035, at approximately 5.1%. Their role is concentrated in littoral, coastal, riverine, and special-operations settings, where small combatants and shore-based forces need precision effects against surface, armored, or fixed targets. Although the segment is comparatively small, its growth is supported by broader adoption of compact launchers and maritime variants of land and air precision weapons.

By Guidance Technology

MCLOS

MCLOS systems have limited relevance in new procurement because manual missile steering creates a demanding operator burden and reduces firing-team survivability. Their remaining role is confined largely to legacy inventories.

SACLOS

SACLOS systems retain a replenishment market where customers possess compatible launchers and face affordability constraints. The BGM-71 TOW remains a widely operated reference system, illustrating why installed-base economics can outlast the technology's position at the leading edge ^{[5]European Security & Defence, ATGM market overview. euro-sd.com}. The category is likely to decline gradually as new programs prioritize fire-and-forget capability, but it remains commercially material in countries that require lower-cost anti-armor capacity at scale.

Laser Beam Riding / Semi-Active Laser Homing

Laser beam-riding and semi-active laser-homing systems continue to offer a practical middle position between legacy command guidance and premium multi-mode seekers. They can provide useful resistance to certain infrared countermeasures, although they require target designation and can expose operators or designators for longer periods. Their relevance is strongest where operators want a compatible or cost-conscious upgrade while retaining precision at extended ranges.

EO/TV Guided

EO/TV-guided systems become more valuable where operators require man-in-the-loop control. Spike NLOS uses a datalink architecture that provides imagery and allows an operator to redirect an engagement, which is particularly relevant when the target picture changes during flight. This capability supports missions in complex terrain, where confirmation and target discrimination can matter as much as maximum range.

IIR Fire-and-Forget

IIR fire-and-forget systems are the principal technology in current modernization programs because they permit a firing team or launch platform to relocate after launch. Their value proposition is operational rather than simply technical: a shorter exposure period can improve survivability in environments shaped by counterfire, drones, and persistent surveillance. Javelin production capacity is being expanded through process and tooling investments as U.S. and allied demand continues.

Dual-Mode / Multi-Mode Seekers

Dual-mode and multi-mode seekers represent the most advanced guidance category. Systems combining imaging infrared, laser, and radar sensing can reduce the risk that one form of obscuration or countermeasure prevents engagement. South Korea's Cheongeom program illustrates the wider trend toward domestically produced systems that combine multiple sensing modes with platform-specific integration. The commercial consequence is that seeker design, software assurance, and testing capacity are becoming increasingly important sources of differentiation.

By Range Classification

Short-Range ATGMs

Short-range ATGMs are projected to increase from USD 1,323 million in 2025 to USD 1,675 million by 2035, at approximately 2.1%. Demand remains tied to light-infantry needs, but the category faces the most direct substitution pressure from lower-cost drones and unguided anti-armor systems.

Medium-Range ATGMs

Medium-range systems are expected to grow from USD 3,024 million in 2025 to USD 3,997 million by 2035, at approximately 2.5%. This category remains important for mechanized infantry because it balances portability, engagement reach, and launcher compatibility. The Netherlands selected Spike LR2 to modernize more than 200 anti-tank missile launchers, citing interoperability considerations with allied forces.

Long-Range ATGMs

Long-range ATGMs are projected to rise from USD 3,568 million in 2025 to USD 4,952 million by 2035, at approximately 3.0%. These systems support engagement beyond many direct-fire threat envelopes and are increasingly associated with rotary-wing and vehicle-based operations. Germany's Brimstone 3 procurement for Eurofighter provides a visible example of long-range precision-missile demand linked to broader combat-air modernization.

Extended/NLOS

Extended/NLOS systems are expected to expand from USD 987 million in 2025 to USD 4,070 million by 2035, at approximately 14.3%. Their growth reflects both higher system values and an operational shift toward engagements based on off-board sensor data. A system capable of receiving updated targeting information can be employed against targets beyond the firing platform's direct line of sight, changing the missile from a direct anti-armor weapon into a component of a wider reconnaissance-strike architecture.

By End-User

Land Forces

Land forces represented USD 6,224 million in 2025 and are projected to reach USD 9,111 million by 2035, at approximately 3.6%. Their large spending base reflects the central role of infantry, armored, and mechanized formations in anti-armor doctrine. Procurement typically includes missiles, command-launch units, vehicle integration, simulators, and sustainment.

Air Forces

Air forces are forecast to increase from USD 2,212 million in 2025 to USD 4,555 million by 2035, at approximately 7.2%. Growth is tied to helicopter and fixed-wing integration, where a missile's value is determined jointly by seeker performance, aircraft software, targeting pods, launch certification, and standoff range.

Naval Forces

Naval forces are projected to grow from USD 466 million in 2025 to USD 1,029 million by 2035, at approximately 7.9%. The segment is expanding from a smaller base as maritime forces seek compact precision weapons for coastal and littoral missions. Procurement is likely to remain episodic because it depends on shipbuilding schedules, platform refits, and the mission mix of individual navies.

Air and naval end-user growth should be interpreted similarly. These categories are gaining value because the missile is being integrated into new platform missions, while land forces continue to absorb the largest absolute expenditure through inventory depth and mechanized-force requirements. Suppliers that can demonstrate integration performance across multiple platforms will have a stronger position than those offering a missile without a mature launch, targeting, and sustainment ecosystem.

Anti-Tank Guided Missile (ATGM) Market Regional Analysis

North America

North America was valued at USD 2,664 million in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 3,380 million by 2035, at approximately 2.1%. Its lower forecast growth reflects an established inventory base rather than reduced procurement importance. The United States remains the regional anchor, with spending oriented toward replenishment, multi-year production programs, allied Foreign Military Sales, and technology upgrades.

United States

The U.S. market is projected to grow from USD 2,590 million in 2025 to USD 3,278 million by 2035. The Javelin Joint Venture received an award worth up to USD 875.6 million in September 2025 for U.S. and international requirements, extending a production pipeline that includes allied customers. The United States also provides a route to market for NLOS capability through its selection and support of the Spike NLOS system for Apache operations.

Canada

Canada is forecast to rise from USD 74 million in 2025 to USD 101 million by 2035, at approximately 2.9%. Demand is shaped by interoperability with NATO allies and by a layered anti-armor approach that combines shoulder-fired systems, helicopter weapons, and allied procurement channels.

Europe

Europe is projected to increase from USD 2,366 million in 2025 to USD 4,144 million by 2035, at approximately 5.5%. The region combines stockpile rebuilding with a political preference for local production, cross-border industrial cooperation, and assured supply. These factors can increase program value because procurement increasingly includes assembly, maintenance, and sovereign-support arrangements.

United Kingdom

The UK market is expected to increase from USD 344 million in 2025 to USD 481 million by 2035, at approximately 3.1%. MBDA's Portfolio Management Agreement 2 supports long-term missile planning, including complex weapons relevant to anti-armor missions.

Germany

Germany is forecast to expand from USD 250 million in 2025 to USD 692 million by 2035, at approximately 10.3%, the highest rate among major European markets. Procurement of Brimstone 3 and the establishment of final assembly capability at MBDA's Schrobenhausen facility illustrate how industrial participation is becoming integral to weapons acquisition.

Rest of Europe

The rest of Europe is forecast to increase from USD 1,185 million in 2025 to USD 2,142 million by 2035, at approximately 5.8%. Countries in this group are using joint procurement, common platform standards, and localized production to reduce delivery risk and improve interoperability.

Asia Pacific

Asia Pacific is projected to grow from USD 2,041 million in 2025 to USD 3,924 million by 2035, at approximately 6.4%. Unlike Europe, where a concentrated rearmament cycle drives much of the increase, Asia Pacific demand is spread across indigenous programs, modernization of armored fleets, and competition among regional suppliers.

China

China is forecast to increase from USD 562 million in 2025 to USD 1,122 million by 2035, at approximately 6.8%. Its domestic missile base supports both PLA modernization and export-oriented offerings, particularly in markets where Chinese systems can compete on affordability and financing flexibility.

India

India is projected to rise from USD 426 million in 2025 to USD 981 million by 2035, at approximately 8.4%.

Rest of Asia Pacific

The rest of Asia Pacific is forecast to increase from USD 466 million in 2025 to USD 902 million by 2035, at approximately 6.5%. Local assembly, export-credit support, and access to non-Western suppliers will materially influence procurement outcomes in this group.

Latin America

Latin America is expected to grow from USD 530 million in 2025 to USD 852 million by 2035, at approximately 4.6%. The region's demand is constrained by fiscal capacity, but selected modernization projects create opportunities for domestically assembled and export-supported systems.

Brazil

Brazil is the region's principal ATGM market. SIATT's January 2025 serial-production contract for MAX 1.2 AC provides a domestic industrial foothold, while Javelin procurement introduces a U.S.-origin fire-and-forget capability ^{[6]Janes, Brazilian Army awards serial-production contract to local ATGM producer. janes.com}. The coexistence of both programs shows that domestic development and foreign procurement can serve different operational and industrial objectives.

Middle East and Africa

The Middle East and Africa market is projected to grow from USD 1,300 million in 2025 to USD 2,395 million by 2035, at approximately 6.0%. Demand reflects regional security conditions, modernization of land and rotary-wing forces, and growing interest in local missile-development capability.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia is forecast to increase from USD 308 million in 2025 to USD 537 million by 2035, at approximately 5.4%. Procurement is supported by rotary-wing operations, established Foreign Military Sales channels, and supplier diversification.

Rest of Middle East and Africa

The rest of the region is projected to grow from USD 638 million in 2025 to USD 1,248 million by 2035, at approximately 6.6%. Procurement is likely to remain uneven because national budgets, export approvals, financing terms, and conflict conditions can change delivery schedules materially.

Asia Pacific presents a different opportunity structure. India, China, South Korea, and other regional markets are developing national industrial capabilities while retaining demand for imported technologies and subsystems. This produces a more fragmented competitive environment, where local-content rules, technology transfer, and export permissions can determine whether a supplier participates in a program. In the Middle East and Africa, the growth outlook is strong but more volatile because procurement cycles remain sensitive to national budgets, security conditions, and bilateral defense relationships.

Anti-Tank Guided Missile (ATGM) Market Share & Competitive Landscape

Rafael held an estimated 18.3% of the 2025 market, equivalent to approximately USD 1,629 million in ATGM segment revenue. Its competitive position is built around the Spike family, which spans short-range, medium-range, extended-range, and NLOS applications. Rafael's ability to offer related systems across multiple launch platforms improves commonality for customers and supports recurring revenue from integration, upgrades, and sustainment.

Lockheed Martin held an estimated 14.5% share, or approximately USD 1,291 million in ATGM segment revenue. Its position is supported by the Javelin Joint Venture and the JAGM/HELLFIRE production base. Lockheed Martin reported total 2025 revenue of USD 75,048 million. The company's principal advantage is scale in U.S. and allied procurement channels, supported by long-running production programs and established platform integration.

RTX, through Raytheon, held an estimated 11.8% share, equivalent to approximately USD 1,050 million in ATGM segment revenue. RTX reported total 2025 revenue of USD 28,043 million. Its role in the Javelin Joint Venture and its precision-guidance engineering base provide exposure to both current replenishment programs and future seeker-development requirements.

MBDA accounted for an estimated 10.2% share, or approximately USD 908 million in ATGM segment revenue, and reported total 2025 revenue of USD 6,550 million. Brimstone and Akeron provide the company with positions in air- and land-based precision weapons. MBDA's multinational industrial structure is particularly relevant in Europe, where governments increasingly seek assured regional production and program sovereignty.

SAAB AB held an estimated 8.6% share, or approximately USD 766 million in ATGM segment revenue, and reported total 2025 revenue of USD 8,089 million. Its portfolio is strongest in short-range anti-armor capability through Carl-Gustaf and AT4 systems. These products overlap with ATGM demand in infantry procurement, especially where customers prioritize portability, affordability, and immediate field availability.

The remaining 36.6% of the market includes regional and emerging suppliers. Bharat Dynamics Limited is expanding India's domestic missile-production capacity, while Hanwha Aerospace and LIG Defense Aerospace are advancing South Korean systems for air and land applications. Norinco participates in price-sensitive export markets with Chinese-origin ATGM systems. Diehl Defence contributes to European production through EuroSpike. EDGE Group, Elbit Systems, Israel Aerospace Industries, ROKETSAN, and L&T MBDA Missile Systems India represent niche or emerging competitors whose relevance depends on domestic programs, export approvals, technology transfer, and the pace of product qualification.

Competition is increasingly determined by more than missile performance. Governments are evaluating local assembly, access to seeker technology, supply-chain resilience, industrial participation, and the ability to support a weapon over its full life cycle. These requirements favor established primes in mature markets but create openings for regional suppliers when national procurement policy prioritizes self-reliance.

Recent Industry Developments

• August 2024: The U.S. Army awarded the Javelin Joint Venture a USD 1.3 billion production contract, supporting replenishment requirements and international demand.
• July 2024: Germany approved procurement of up to 3,266 MBDA Brimstone 3 missiles for Eurofighter operations, alongside establishment of a Brimstone final-assembly line in Schrobenhausen.
• September 2024: The Netherlands selected Spike LR2 to upgrade its anti-tank missile-launcher fleet, with investments of up to EUR 250 million.
• January 2025: Brazil's Army Logistics Command signed a BRL 54.1 million serial-production contract with SIATT for the MAX 1.2 AC medium-range guided missile.
• March 2025: India's Ministry of Defence signed a Rs 1,801.34 crore contract for NAMIS-TR, integrating the Nag Mk.2 missile onto tracked BMP-2-based platforms.
• August 2025: Lockheed Martin received a USD 720 million contract modification for JAGM and HELLFIRE production for U.S. and international customers.
• September 2025: The U.S. Army awarded the Javelin Joint Venture a contract valued at up to USD 875.6 million for U.S. and allied requirements.
• November 2025: Bharat Dynamics Limited received a Rs 2,095 crore contract for INVAR anti-tank guided missiles under India's Buy (Indian) procurement category.
• December 2025: Hanwha Aerospace received a KRW 225.4 billion second-phase production contract for Cheongeom air-launched ATGMs, with deliveries scheduled through 2028.