Heavy-Duty Autonomous Vehicle Market Size, By Vehicle, By Level of Autonomy, By Propulsion, By Application, Growth Forecast 2025 - 2034

Heavy-Duty Autonomous Vehicle Market Size

The global heavy-duty autonomous vehicle market was valued at USD 43.8 billion in 2024 and is estimated to register a CAGR of 14.3% between 2025 and 2034.
 

Rising demand for advanced safety features in vehicles, combined with a growing consumer preference for self-driving, is driving market growth. These vehicles, equipped with a variety of sensors and sophisticated algorithms, can precisely analyze their surroundings and make instant decisions. This improved capability significantly reduces accidents, resulting in fewer fatalities, injuries, and property damage, saving both lives and costs.
 

Autonomous truck vehicles improve efficiency by adjusting their driving patterns in response to real-time traffic data and road conditions, reducing unnecessary acceleration, braking, and idling. This increases fuel efficiency and lowers emissions, promoting environmental sustainability while lowering user costs. To meet rising demand, market players are focusing on partnerships and collaborations.
 

For instance, in March 2024, Scania, MAN, and Navistar partnered to accelerate the deployment of Level 4 autonomous trucks, with the goal of revolutionizing the commercial trucking industry. The collaboration aims to improve freight transportation efficiency, safety, and sustainability through the integration of advanced automation, AI-driven decision-making, and real-time data processing.
 

Government funding and regulatory frameworks are also major drivers of growth in the autonomous vehicle market. Governments around the world are making significant investments in autonomous vehicle research and development grants, which benefit academic institutions, commercial firms, and industrial groups.
 

Governments are working on developing legislation for the implementation of autonomous vehicles that is clear and standardized across borders, as well as ensuring vehicle safety standards, cybersecurity measures, data protection regulations, and liability allocation. This aids in clarifying and stabilizing factors for businesses which fosters investment and innovation, all whilst ensuring safety for citizens.
 

For example, in May 2023, the US Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) undertook a progressive step towards securing the safe development, testing, and deployment of Automated Vehicles (AV) technologies. It includes Connected and Automated Vehicle (CAV) and Cooperative Driving Automation (CDA) research. Additionally, the Federal Highway Administration has initiated grant and funding programs for states and private entities to facilitate autonomous vehicle testing and enhance related infrastructure.
 

Heavy-Duty Autonomous Vehicle Market Trends

• The heavy-duty autonomous vehicle industry is experiencing significant technological advancements in LiDAR, radar, cameras, and other sensors. These advancements improve perception of the environment, allowing for more precise and reliable navigation in different situations. Improved algorithms, such as AI and machine learning allow autonomous vehicles to make better real-time decisions, handle complex situations, and adapt to changing driving conditions.
   
• These systems use machine learning algorithms, LiDAR, radar, and cameras to make real-time decisions, bringing the industry closer to Level 4 autonomous driving. Furthermore, AI is changing predictive maintenance by utilizing real-time sensor data without discrimination to proactively avert breakdowns and wasteful maintenance effort.
   
• Technological improvements enable a range of backups and safety protocols, reducing the danger of system failure and boosting overall safety. For example, in November 2023, Tesla launched a new beta version of its "Full Self-Driving" feature, claiming improved lane-changing motions and overall performance. While still designated as a driver assistance system, this advancement exemplifies Tesla's continued efforts to push the frontiers of autonomous driving.
   
• Industry is undergoing a transformation due to the growing desire for electric trucks and the increased usage of alternative fuels. With growing environmental concerns and the promise of lower emissions and operational costs, class 7 electric trucks are gaining appeal. The development of alternative fuels such as hydrogen and natural gas provides feasible alternatives to regular diesel. The move to a more sustainable and diversified future is attracting purchasers with greener and more efficient class 7 truck alternatives. For example, in April 2024, BYD intends to introduce its first electric pickup truck model, marking a huge step forward in the company's electric vehicle lineup.
   
• The class 8 truck market is expanding due to product changes and introductions by major industry players. Companies are increasingly focused on innovation and customization to satisfy changing customer and legal demands. Self-driving vehicles, telematics, and increased fuel efficiency are being advertised as standard features. For example, in April 2024, Volvo Trucks North America began buying the new flagship model for the class 8 VNL tractor, with mass production due to begin in the summer of 2024 and customer deliveries planned for later that year.
   

Heavy-Duty Autonomous Vehicle Market Analysis

Based on propulsion, the heavy-duty autonomous vehicle market is divided into ICE, electric vehicle and hybrid. The ICE propulsion segment dominated the market accounting for over 60% share in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 100 billion by 2034.
 

• ICE vehicles are significantly less expensive, making them more suitable for initial research and testing. The current infrastructure for refueling stations is more advanced for ICE vehicles, making them easier to test and deploy in a variety of locations. ICE vehicles have longer driven ranges than other alternative vehicles, making them ideal for testing in a variety of environments and on longer test drives.
   
• In September 2023, Daimler Truck tested autonomous driving technology on ICE trucks, which had a longer range and established recharging infrastructure. This allows for lengthy on-road testing without concern about battery range constraints.
   
• Heavy-duty applications require consistent high power and torque. Diesel engines have a consistent high-power output, making them ideal for the construction, agricultural, and transportation industries, where heavy loads must be hauled over long distances
   
• In June 2023, Cummins unveiled a hydrogen-powered vehicle capable of traveling 1,806 miles without refueling. This accomplishment demonstrates H2-ICE technology ability to provide a zero-emission solution while utilizing existing internal combustion engine infrastructure, allowing ICE platforms to compete in the heavy-duty category.

Based on vehicles, the heavy-duty autonomous vehicle market is divided into trucks and buses. The trucks segment held a market share of 68.8% in 2024.
 

• Trucks dominate the market because they are used in logistics, mining, and industrial sectors. The move to automation of trucking solves issues such as labor shortage, high operation costs, and safety. Autonomous trucks work round the clock without resting, conserving fuel and enhancing delivery speed. Waymo, TuSimple, and Daimler Truck AG are among the companies leading autonomous truck deployment.
   
• Advanced sensor technology in LiDAR, RADAR, and AI-based navigation makes highway driving more predictable and safer for autonomous trucks than city driving with heavy buses. TuSimple, Waymo, and Aurora are already creating autonomous trucking solutions, and Amazon, UPS, and FedEx are investing in autonomous fleets to rationalize supply chains.
   
• Hub-to-hub autonomous trucking enables long-haul transportation with human drivers doing first- and last-mile deliveries. Autonomous heavy trucks are being used in mining and construction, where Caterpillar and Komatsu put autonomous haul trucks into controlled conditions to improve efficiency and safety. Advanced artificial intelligence, 5G connectivity, and electrification of autonomous trucks are increasing their scalability, cost-effectiveness, and operational viability, propelling them to market supremacy.
   
• In September 2022, John Deere announced driverless vehicles for agriculture, construction, and landscaping. Some of the vehicles are a driverless tractor for farms with 16 cameras for 360-degree vision cameras, a driverless orchard tractor based on lidar sensors, and a driverless dump truck by the name of "Dusty." They all aim to cover the labor deficits and increase productivity in various sectors.
   
• Autonomous buses are revolutionizing public transportation by addressing critical challenges such as driver shortages, high operational costs, and safety concerns. These self-driving buses enhance efficiency, reduce fuel consumption, and improve the overall passenger experience through continuous, uninterrupted operation. Industry leaders such as Volvo, Mercedes-Benz are at the forefront of autonomous bus development, integrating advanced self-driving technology across urban transit networks, airport shuttle services, and long-distance transportation.
   

Based on the level of autonomy, the heavy-duty autonomous vehicle market is divided into semi-autonomous vehicles and autonomous vehicles. The semi-autonomous vehicle segment dominated the market accounting for 100% share in 2024 and is expected that fully autonomous vehicles will be in the market from 2027.
 

• Heavy-duty vehicles with semi-autonomous capabilities are becoming increasingly popular, as they improve comfort, safety, and productivity. These trucks are outfitted with cutting-edge technology such as adaptive cruise control, lane departure warning, and blind-spot recognition systems, which increase driver awareness and reduce the likelihood of accidents on highways and congested roads.
   
• Several government and regulatory bodies are working to develop standards and regulations for semi-autonomous trucks. These regulations help to address the safety, liability, and operational requirements of autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicles on public roads. Clear regulatory frameworks are also critical for driving product demand because they ensure the safe deployment of semi-autonomous truck technology.
   
• In May 2023, heavy-duty transportation (trucks, ships, and planes) will generate 13% of world greenhouse gas emissions, while road transport will contribute 30%. Semi-autonomous technology improves fuel efficiency, reduces congestion, and optimizes logistical operations, resulting in a more sustainable transportation system. Many fleet operators are adopting semi-autonomous trucks as part of their environmental stewardship and corporate social responsibility initiatives.
   

Based on application, the heavy-duty autonomous vehicle market is divided into logistics and transportation, mining, agriculture, construction, oil & gas and others. The logistics and transportation segment is projected to grow to the fastest CAGR of 15%.
 

• Logistics and transportation dominate the heavy-duty autonomous industry due to the increasing demand for lower-cost and efficient freight transport. The increased growth in e-commerce, just-in-time supply chains, and same-day delivery has accelerated the adoption of autonomous vehicle.
   
• For instance, Volvo Autonomous Solutions and DHL Supply Chain have implemented driverless freight trucks on the Dallas-Houston route to boost efficiency and alleviate labor concerns in logistics.
   
• TuSimple made the first fully autonomous semi-truck trip on public highways without any driver intervention in December 2021, covering 80 miles in Arizona. Similarly, Waymo Via has been testing autonomous trucks with top logistics companies such as UPS and J.B. Hunt since 2020 to improve freight hauling efficiency. Large retailers like Amazon and Walmart have invested heavily in autonomous logistics to improve consumer-to-warehouse delivery.

In 2024, the U.S. dominated the North America heavy-duty autonomous vehicle market with revenue around USD 14.6 billion.
 

• Governments are actively developing regulations and guidelines to facilitate autonomous vehicle testing and deployment. The preferences for convenience, along with increasing seems to drive the demand for more efficient and safer means of transportation in North America. They also have the added benefit of reducing deaths and traffic congestion.
   
• Considering the large number of technological consumers, avid technology users, and the willingness to adopt new technologies, North America has the potential market for personal autonomous vehicles. In general, the North American AV industry is well-positioned for accelerated growth given the strong advancements in technology, the supportive regulatory environment, and the possible economic gains.
   
• U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) have built a regulatory system supporting autonomous vehicle deployment, where states like Texas, Arizona, and California have become top-testing hubs. Autonomous trucking activity is minimal on a large scale in Canada and Mexico.
   
• According to NHTSA, complementing federal efforts, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) launched the Automated Vehicle Transparency and Engagement for Safe Testing (AV TEST) Initiative. The initiative provides the public with accurate information regarding testing of Automated Driving Systems (ADS)-equipped vehicles.
   

Predictions suggest that from 2025-2034, the Germany heavy-duty autonomous vehicle market will grow tremendously.
 

• The heavy-duty autonomous vehicle market in Germany is poised for tremendous growth, fueled by government incentives, top automotive companies, and cutting-edge infrastructure. The German Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport (BMDV) has provided USD 84 million (2022-2024) for autonomous vehicle research, and in July 2021, Germany became the first nation to enact a legal framework for Level 4 autonomous vehicles, paving the way for commercial deployment on public roads by 2024.
   
• Daimler Truck and Volkswagen's TRATON Group are at the forefront of innovation, with Daimler's Torc Robotics piloting autonomous freight trucks and TRATON working with Navistar and TuSimple to create self-driving trucks for European logistics. MAN Truck & Bus is conducting autonomous logistics trials under the ANITA initiative (2023-2025), while ZF Group introduced an autonomous truck platform in 2023 to improve industrial freight solutions.
   
• Logistics superpowers such as DHL and DB Schenker are even piloting driverless trucks in order to save time and emit less, as the Port of Hamburg incorporates trials of autonomous trucks into its Smart Port strategy. Moreover, the drive for Germany's electrification is also synergistic with the EU's Fit for 55 policy, aimed at reducing a 55% CO? footprint by 2030, for investments in battery electric and hybrid autonomous heavy trucks.
   

Predictions suggest that from 2025-2034, the China heavy-duty autonomous vehicle market will grow tremendously.
 

• China's heavy-duty autonomous trucking market will undergo dramatic growth to become the largest market in the APAC region. Growth will be triggered by government regulations, tech improvements, and bulk industrialization adoption. Autonomous driving is at the forefront of China's 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) under strong backing of intelligent logistics, mine automation, and intelligent transport systems.
   
• In 2023, China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) issued laws to accelerate the commercial deployment of L4 autonomous trucks, paving the way for future growth. Baidu, Pony.ai, and WeRide are among the Chinese companies that have previously tested and deployed self-driving trucks.
   
• According to Baidu's Apollo Go in 2024, it widened its autonomous heavy truck tests in several cities, while Pony.ai collaborated with Sany Heavy Truck to manufacture L4 autonomous trucks for logistics centers. WeRide, on the other hand, has been concentrating on autonomous mining trucks, with mass deployments in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang to improve efficiency in resource extraction.
   
• China's shift to electric and hydrogen trucks is consistent with its goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2060, ensuring long-term sustainability. China will now dominate the adoption of heavy-duty autonomous vehicles in the APAC region, surpassing competitors such as Japan, South Korea, and India, and setting new standards for industrial and commercial automation.
   

Heavy-Duty Autonomous Vehicle Market Share

• The top 7 companies leading in the heavy-duty autonomous vehicle industry are Volvo, FAW, Caterpillar, Daimler, Traton, PACCAR and NFA. They together hold a market share of over 30% in 2024.
   
• Volkswagen AG invests a significant amount of invest in research and development (R&D), with the main goal being the advancement of autonomous vehicle technology. They also make investments in cutting-edge sensors, AI, and machine learning algorithms with the goal of improving the efficacy, safety, and dependability of autonomous driving systems.
   
• Caterpillar Inc. is leading the heavy-duty autonomous vehicle market, especially in mining and construction automation. The company has been at the forefront of using autonomous haul trucks and equipment, greatly enhancing efficiency and safety in mining operations. As of 2023, Caterpillar operated more than 600 autonomous haul trucks, moving over 6 billion tons of material worldwide. Its autonomous solutions are extensively used in large mining locations in Australia, North America, and South America.
   
• The Cat Command technology of Caterpillar, implemented in heavy haul trucks, bulldozers, and drills, allows completely autonomous operations in extreme conditions. For instance, Caterpillar's autonomous haulage system (AHS) is used by Rio Tinto, a leading global mining company, in its mines in Australia to minimize costs and maximize productivity. Moreover, the company's agreement with BHP and Newmont Corporation has grown its autonomous fleet internationally.
   
• Aurora Innovation, Inc. is a leading provider of autonomous vehicle technology. Aurora focuses on developing self-driving technology for a variety of applications, including freight transportation and passenger mobility. The Aurora Driver, the company's flagship product, is an AI-powered self-driving system designed to work with commercial vehicles such as trucks.
   
• In June 2024, Uber Freight and Aurora launched Premier Autonomy, a new program providing early access to over 1 billion of Aurora’s driverless miles to Uber Freight carriers through 2030. The program will assist in integrating and deploying autonomous trucks on the Uber Freight network to enable carriers of all sizes to improve utilization and enhance business efficiency through autonomous technology.
   
• Volvo Group is a global leader in truck, bus, construction equipment, marine, and industrial engine manufacturing. Volvo Trucks, a division of the Volvo Group, is a global leader in heavy-duty truck manufacturing, with a focus on innovation, sustainability, and safety.
   
• In April 2024, Volvo Trucks North America started ordering the new flagship model for class 8 VNL tractor, aiming for mass production to begin during the summer of 2024, customer deliveries will occur later that year.
   

Heavy-Duty Autonomous Vehicle Market Companies

Major players operating in the heavy-duty autonomous vehicle industry include:

• Baidu
• Caterpillar
• Daimler Truck
• Embark Trucks
• FAW
• General Motors
• PACCAR
• Schaeffler 
• TRATON
• Volvo
   

The heavy-duty autonomous vehicle (HDAV) market is expanding rapidly, with leading competitors forming strategic alliances, merging and acquiring, and increasing investments in AI-based automation and next-generation vehicle technology. Leading companies are increasingly focusing on sensor fusion, machine learning algorithms, and cloud-based fleet management solutions to improve vehicle autonomy, safety, and operational efficiency. These initiatives place them at the forefront of the industry, enabling self-driving freight transport and environmentally friendly transportation.
 

Large scale logistics and transportation companies are adopting AI-enabled self-driving trucks for long haul transportation to cut costs and respond to the shortage of drivers. The transition towards green mobility is further accelerated by electric and hydrogen-powered self-driving trucks. To ensure effective autonomous driving, V2I (vehicle to infrastructure) communication and predictive maintenance technologies, industry leaders actively collaborate with AI developers, LiDAR manufacturers, and telematics companies.
 

To respond to shifting regulatory landscapes, HDAV industry leaders are investing more in R&D on safety-approved autonomous technologies such as redundant braking, real-time traffic mapping, and fail-safe functions. These technologies enhance the dependability of Level 4 and Level 5 automation to provide a seamless shift to autonomous trucking.
 

Key players, such as the producers of self-driving heavy-duty and AI-assisted logistics systems, commercial fully autonomous mining and construction vehicles, and so on, offer a variety of autonomous solutions for advanced logistics. These technologies empower fleet operators, logistics service providers, and industrial companies to meet growing demands of productivity, scalability, environmental stewardship and unleash the next tier of self-sufficient heavy equipment.
 

Heavy-Duty Autonomous Vehicle Industry News

• in January 2025, May Mobility partnered with Tecnobus to introduce electric, autonomous minibuses with a seating capacity of up to 30 passengers, aiming to enhance urban transit systems with automated solutions. Similarly, in December 2024, MAN Truck & Bus announced plans to launch a fully autonomous city bus route in Munich as part of the MINGA project, with operations expected to commence in 2025. These advancements underscore the growing adoption of autonomous technology in public transportation, paving the way for safer, more efficient, and sustainable mobility solutions.
   
• In October 2024, Fortescue Metals Group inked a massive USD 2.8 billion deal with German firm Liebherr to transition two-thirds of its mining fleet to zero-emission battery technology. Under the deal, it will buy 360 autonomous battery-electric trucks, 55 electric excavators, and 60 battery-powered dozers, a revolutionary move towards heavy industry sustainability.
   
• In September 2024, Renault Group plans to pursue a dual strategy for autonomous vehicles with an emphasis on advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) for individual cars and full autonomy for public transportation. Due to regulatory and customer constraints, Renault aims to provide top-level driving assistance for individual vehicles rather than full autonomy.
   
• Caterpillar released the autonomous driving technology in June 2023, contributing to market growth. Command for Hauling is an autonomous technology that allows mining trucks to be operated without drivers, increasing productivity by 30% and lowering maintenance costs.
   
• In March 2023, Amazon boosted the number of autonomous forklifts and heavy-duty warehouse vehicles. They used Kiva Robotics' AI technology to automate inventory management across US warehouses.
   
• In January 2022, NVIDIA teamed with TuSimple to develop self-driving technology through Drive Orin. With this agreement, both companies hoped to strengthen their position in the US market.
   

The heavy-duty autonomous vehicle market research report includes in-depth coverage of the industry with estimates & forecast in terms of revenue (USD Billion) and volume (Units) from 2021 to 2034, for the following segments:

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Market, By Vehicle

• Trucks
  • Class 7
  • Class 8 
• Buses

Market, By Level of Autonomy

• Semi-autonomous vehicle
  • Level 1
  • Level 2
  • Level 3 
• Autonomous vehicle
  • Level 4

Market, By Propulsion

• ICE
• Electric vehicle
• Hybrid vehicle

Market, By Application

• Logistics and transportation
• Mining
• Construction
• Agriculture
• Oil & Gas
• Others

The above information is provided for the following regions and countries:

• North America
  • U.S.
  • Canada
• Europe
  • Germany
  • France
  • UK
  • Spain
  • Italy
  • Russia
  • Nordics
• Asia Pacific
  • China
  • India
  • Japan
  • South Korea
  • ANZ
  • Southeast Asia 
• Latin America
  • Brazil
  • Mexico
  • Argentina 
• MEA
  • UAE
  • South Africa
  • Saudi Arabia