Europe Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) Market Size - By Capacity, By Type, By Source, Analysis, Share, & Forecast, 2025 - 2034

Europe Renewable Energy Certificate Market Size

The Europe renewable energy certificate market size was valued at USD 7.2 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach the value of USD 19.7 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 10.6% from 2025 to 2034. The market of renewable energy certificates (RECs) in Europe is continuously changing due to policy changes, increasing corporate sustainability targets, and growth in renewable energy supply. For example, the European Commission recently declared its “Fit for 55” plan which intends to decrease net emissions of greenhouse gases by at least 55% in the next 10 years, thereby increasing the use of renewables.
 

Regulatory alignment across countries and the strengthening of guarantee of origin (GO) systems are enhancing market transparency and trust. Demand for RECs is rising as more companies seek to decarbonize operations and meet voluntary and compliance-based targets. Furthermore, market participants are working to improve transaction and traceability through the use of digital platforms and blockchain technology. For instance, the XDC Network has integrated hybrid blockchain technology to enhance trade finance functions in April 2025, thereby facilitating cost reduction and optimization of processing, turnaround, and turnaround times.
 

In addition, the cost of certificates from the varying regions and national policies still poses a problem. Taken as a whole, Europe’s REC market is moving towards more integration and uniformity, bolstered by growing integration from both public and private players to hasten the shift to clean energy. Tariffs imposed during the Trump presidency are likely to increase the costs associated with the European REC market, which may suspend some projects and reduce investment confidence. Increased trade costs and equipment prices could stifle renewable energy progress, challenge international collaboration, and undermine Europe’s transition to clean energy as well as REC market stability.
 

Europe Renewable Energy Certificate Market Trends

The European renewable energy certificate industry is undergoing rapid changes driven by policy changes, technological innovations and new corporate sustainability targets. The adoption of the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive alongside the Green Claims Directive is increasing the need for Guarantees of Origin as firms strive to meet the more stringent reporting requirements on emissions.
 

Emerging technologies are improving REC trading processes including certificate verification using blockchain technology. For instance, Rowan Energy in 2024 introduced Blockchain and NFT systems that automatically verify energy production processes and carbon offsets which ensures the legitimacy of green energy and accuracy of sustainability assertions.
 

Regardless of the positive shifts, the market encounters obstacles including oversupply due to excess renewable energy generation and geographic imbalances in certificate pricing. The inclusion of nuclear power into GO systems in some countries also adds difficulty to the market dynamics. Overall, the European REC market is poised for growth, driven by policy support and corporate commitment to sustainability, but must navigate supply-demand imbalances and regulatory nuances to maintain momentum.
 

Europe Renewable Energy Certificate Market Analysis

• The European renewable energy certificate industry under type segment includes compliance and voluntary categories, each exhibiting distinct trends. The market was evaluated at USD 6.8 billion, USD 6.5 billion and USD 7.2 billion in 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively. The compliance segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of over 10% till 2034.
   
• The compliance segment is primarily driven by legal requirements necessitating utilities and corporations to purchase RECs to fulfill renewable energy obligations. This segment benefits from persistent market demand due to government policies focused on lowering carbon emissions and increasing the use of clean energy.
   
• For example, the European Union Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) requires member countries to incorporate a minimum of 32% renewable energy in their energy mix by 2030, further strengthening the expansion of the compliance market.
   
• On the other hand, the voluntary sector is growing rapidly due to heightened sustainability initiatives from businesses and consumers looking for more environmentally conscious practices. Companies are actively buying RECs to go beyond the regulatory obligations and showcase their commitment towards renewable energy.
   
• With blockchain technology for REC verification, trust and transparency in voluntary markets are improving. However, the compliance market still prevails, although it is supported by mandatory frameworks and policies. All these components are driving the European REC market to achieve greater sustainability and transparency.
   

• The Europe renewable energy certificate market is witnessing distinct trends across the source segment. The hydro source segment held 42.2% of market share in 2024 and is anticipated to grow to 9% CAGR till 2034. Hydropower is and remains one of the major sources for regions with significant water availability. Its use is moderated by environmental considerations and the availability of water resources, thereby catering to the major share in the overall market.
   
• The development of onshore and offshore wind energy increases due to supportive policies and technological advancements, making wind RECs more favorable. For instance, the European Wind Energy Association stated that the EU added 18.3 GW of additional wind capacity during 2023, a large part of which came from offshore projects.
   
• Supportive incentives along with declining costs are positively impacting the market share of solar energy in the REC market, thereby expected to grow at a CAGR of over 13% by 2034. The bioenergy sector, such as biogas and biomass, plays an important role in energy diversification within the agricultural domain.
   
• These advances are informing the development of circular economies that can convert municipal and industrial waste into renewable energy. All these developments show that the renewable energy market in Europe has a robust response to innovation and sustainability goals.
   

• The Germany renewable energy certificate market experienced significant growth in 2022, 2023 and 2024 and was valued at USD 1.1 billion, USD 1.9 billion and USD 2.1 billion respectively and the industry will grow at a rate of over 10% by 2034.
   
• The REC market in Germany is driven by the country’s Renewable Energy Sources Act (RESA) which supports generation of renewable energy through feed-in tariffs and auctions. This market has a diverse energy portfolio with wind, solar and biomass as major constituents.
   
• Additional market policies aim at improving the integration of renewables as well as their efficiency. As per the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, the development of renewable energies will be further supported by increasing the targets for renewables portion in electricity consumption by 2030.
   
• In the UK, the renewable energy certificate market is stimulated by government policies and strong corporate social responsibility (CSR) as REC demand has increased. Strides towards carbon neutrality has increased the requirement for renewable energy certificates, alongside technological advancements and supporting policies.
   
• The British government under the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero has introduced recently the “Powering Up Britain” strategy which aims at further supporting the attainment of net-zero goals alongside the funding of renewable energy projects.
   
• Norway's REC market, heavily influenced by its extensive hydropower resources, sees significant contributions to renewable energy generation, as a result will grow at a CAGR of 8% by 2034. With robust government support and increased public concern regarding environmental issues, the market expects growth from investments in renewable infrastructure to be sustained.
   
• For instance, as stated by Norway's largest producer of renewable energy, Statkraft, the company plans to spend USD 6.6 billion annually on renewable energy projects until 2030.
   
• The renewable energy certificate market in Italy is expanding due to the supportive policies in place as well as the country's diverse mix of renewable energy resources, including solar and wind energy, as well as bioenergy. Italy’s drive to reduce reliance on fossil fuels while enhancing energy security increases the REC demand alongside acceleration of technological advancement.
   
• For instance, the Italian Ministry of Environment and Energy Security has recently declared the allocation of USD 1.25 billion to promote renewables through the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP).
   

Europe Renewable Energy Certificate Market Share

The top 6 companies in the European renewable energy certificate industry include Statkraft, Constellation Energy, ENGIE SA, Shell plc, EDF Renewables, and Xpansiv which held a market share of between 30 to 35% in 2024. These corporations are well known for their contributions to the production, trading, and certification of renewable energy in Europe.
 

Statkraft has the leading market share in the European renewable energy certificate market. Statkraft, as the largest renewable energy generator in Europe, also produces hydro, wind, solar power, and provides district heating. Its wide portfolio of renewable energy resources, as well as active participation in the operations of the energy market, enables Statkraft to be one of the main suppliers of Guarantees of Origin (GOs), the European analogue of RECs. For example, Statkraft has plans to modernize the Nore hydropower plants in Nore and Uvdal, Norway, with the granary of USD 390 million in May 2025.
 

Europe Renewable Energy Certificate Market Companies

• Constellation Energy is a key player in the European REC market as a provider of renewable energy and a trader. In 2024, the company had revenue of USD 23.5 billion. The firm helps procure RECs for companies that want to achieve sustainability objectives and uses his knowledge in the energy markets to assist in the transition to low cleaner energy.
   
• ENGIE SA engages in the European REC market directly with its renewable energy generation and distribution services. For example, it is developing plans to reach 95 GW of renewable energy and storage capacity by 2030, which is an integral part of their goals towards controlling net emissions by the year 2045. The company supports the growth of renewable energy by providing RECs, aiding clients in achieving their environmental objectives and contributing to Europe's clean energy transition.
   
• Shell plc has become a leading entity in the global carbon credit market, retiring 14.9 million credits in 2024 to offset emissions. Shell appears to be moving towards offset mechanisms and away from direct investment in clean energy in order to utilize carbon credits for meeting climate targets. For example, Shell is currently planning to spend approximately 10 to 15 billion USD from 2023 to the end of 2025 towards international investments in low carbon energy technologies.
   
• EDF Renewables is involved in the production of renewable energy throughout Europe. The company recorded revenue of USD 134.59 billion in 2024, demonstrating continued growth. The company’s contribution to the REC market through the development and management of renewable energy assets aids in the efforts to decarbonize Europe, while also having a balanced portfolio of wind, solar, and marine energy.
   
• Xpansiv runs a worldwide marketplace for ESG commodities and also includes RECs. The Company facilitates transparent trading of RECs through its CBL spot exchange, enhancing market liquidity and accessibility. Efficient REC transactions are available for participants worldwide on Xpansiv’s platform which supports the energy transition. In 2023, Xpansiv announced I-REC spot contracts that was launched on it’s CBL exchange platform.
   

Key players operating across the Europe renewable energy certificate industry are:

• 3Degrees
• Ameresco
• Constellation
• Climate Impact Partners
• EDF Trading Limited
• Ecohz
• Enel Green Power
• ENGIE
• Grexel
• Shell
• Statkraft
• STX Group
• Targray
• The Green Certificate Company
• Xpansiv
   

Europe Renewable Energy Certificate Industry News

• In April 2025, Xpansiv will issue the CBL GEO CORSIA Phase 1 Standardized Contract, which allows for the trading of carbon offsets CORSIA compliant within international aviation’s carbon reduction scheme. The scope of this contract is to improve the effectiveness and clarity in the reduction of emissions within the aviation industry.
   
• In April 2025, Ameresco SUNEL Energy SA will begin the construction of three solar parks in the southwestern regions of Romania, with a total output of 466 MWp, They obtain 344.31 million USD in EPC contracts. This project will help Romania abandon the use of coal for energy by 2032 and will help reduce carbon emissions significantly through the deployment of large scale solar solutions.
   
• In April 2023, Xpansiv shared plans to implement spot contracts on International Renewable Energy Certificates (I-REC) on their CBL exchange platform. This project intends to further develop global REC trading through the integration of the Evident registry, thus helping participants from all regions in achieving better regional price clarity and trading volume.
   

The Europe renewable energy certificate market research report includes in-depth coverage of the industry with estimates & forecast in terms of “USD Million” from 2021 to 2034, for the following segments:

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Market, By Capacity

• 5 MW
• > 5 MW - 15 MW
• > 15 MW - 30 MW
• > 30 MW

Market, By Type

• Voluntary
• Compliance

Market, By Source

• Bioenergy
• Hydro
• Solar
• Wind
• Waste
• Others

The above information has been provided for the following countries:

• Germany
• Spain
• France
• UK
• Italy
• Norway
• Sweden